bne IntelliNews – Polish core inflation stands at 3.9% y / y in March

Poland’s core inflation, which measures value progress with out meals and power, accelerated by 0.2pp to three.9% year-on-year in March, the Nationwide Financial institution of Poland (BNP).

The CPI breakdown, launched by the Polish statistics workplace GUS the day earlier than, confirmed that the acceleration within the core index was attributable to rising costs for communications, together with phone and fax providers, which turned 8.3% y / y costlier in March in comparison with 5.9% y / y progress in February.

As well as, studying remained influenced by non-market components resembling will increase in taxes or administrative prices.

Headline inflation additionally accelerated in March, including 0.8 pp, for a rise of three.2% y / y. “[Inflation] is anticipated to speed up within the second half of 2021, which might complicate the central financial institution’s present rhetoric, however we imagine that is unlikely to influence the MPC’s determination to proceed its accommodative financial coverage till the tip of the mid-term. 2022 ”, in keeping with ING.

“Nonetheless, the noticeable presence of foreclosure-related distortions within the value information makes the market optimistic about inflation over the medium time period,” he added.

The Nationwide Financial institution of Poland reduce charges 3 times final 12 months to a traditionally low degree of 0.1%. The possibilities of charges altering anyway are nearly nil, Glapinski stated final month.

“The acceleration in core inflation is unhealthy information for the zloty alternate fee as it is going to scale back Poland’s actual rate of interest within the face of the central financial institution’s unchanged financial coverage,” wrote Capital Economics .

The consensus amongst analysts is that the CPI hovers round 3% in 2021. The central financial institution’s inflation goal is 2.5%.


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